JC in India

“Incredible India”, is an internationally recognised phrase used to promote the awe inspiring and diverse tourism potential of this country. After living in India for nearly 18 months, I feel this phrase is also a good description of the potential for Indian aviation – Incredible!

This last week a lot has been happening in this Indian aviation landscape. The market here continues to grow and grow, and while some airlines are struggling primarily due to debt burdens and operational challenges, others are doing very well. There are two dominant airline groups here in India, with the lead brands of each being Air India and Indigo.

Air India is the full-service airline everyone knows for its long history and sadly, in recent years, lesser reputation. However last year they were acquired by the huge conglomerate TATA (along with various other shareholding elements) and are now subject to major investment and improvement focus. We will soon start to see a transformation of Air India come to life, as their new aircraft orders start to arrive, and other initiatives take root. There are high expectations and significant ambition here that they will become a world class airline with a comprehensive hub network connecting India to the world.

Indigo is the largest low-cost airline in India by far and have a good reputation and in my view deservedly so. They are also growing significantly, and their overall market share gives them a solid foundation on which to do so. In the last few days we have seen them announce 6 new international routes, 4 of which will be from Delhi. They also now have a B777 (wide body long haul aircraft) decaled in their colours. Technically it is operated in partnership with Turkish airlines under a ‘wet lease’ arrangement, which means Turkish are supplying the aircraft and crew to Indigo, but the arrangement is material enough for it to be repainted as an Indigo aircraft. For aircraft spotters here in India that has caught a lot of people’s interest.

Recently we saw a new start up, Akasa, join the competition and so far they seem to be earning a solid reputation too. While much smaller and in their infancy, there seems to be some positive momentum to them which I hope continues. Additionally, there is a new regional airline (Fly91) which is soon to start up from our new airport in Goa in a few months, and their launch will mark yet another step forward for Indian aviation. +91 is the country code for India, hence this is apparently where the name comes from.

India is now believed to have overtaken China in terms of being the most populous country, with over 1.4bn people living here. India has 701 active aircraft in service with orders placed for over 1,400 more. Air India’s huge 470 aircraft order along with Indigo’s 490, and Akasa Air having 51 still to arrive, make up the majority of this. The ambition and potential for each of these airlines is huge. Plus there are plenty of rumours of more to come at the Paris Air show in a few weeks time…

Chinese Airlines by contrast have a little over 4,000 aircraft in service with 1,249 on order. The gap therefore considering the booming and growing economy of India (circa 7% GDP growth estimated), illustrates the headroom that is available.

Airport developments to facilitate this growth are continuing at pace, with our new Goa airport being one of 74 new airports built over the past 9 years, with over 40 more in the pipeline. One of which is our new airport development in Bhogapuram on the East coast, which had its foundation stone laid in the last month and is now under development to open in a few years time. Plus, in Delhi we are soon to open our 4th runway and expanded Terminal One, which will give us the capacity to handle over 100 million passengers, becoming one of the largest airports in the world.

Our Hyderabad Airport is opening its extended and integrated terminal and is ready for the expected 40 million passengers it will soon be handling each year, with new routes to the airport being in high demand.

It is a challenging environment to operate in at times though, with a large amount of political oversight and regulation to adhere to, which on the one hand provides a rigid framework in which to operate, but on the other imposes a plethora of restrictions on network development based on capacity and route limitations in certain markets.

At the moment one of the previously main players, Go First – a smaller but still large-scale low-cost airline – is currently grounded having filed for bankruptcy. They are working on a restructuring plan, and it is possible they will commence operations again in a limited fashion in the coming days. Their woes have been stated by them as due to having a large number of their fleet grounded due to engine maintenance delays by their engine manufacturer (Pratt & Whitney). Having seen so many of their aircraft parked in Delhi with engine covers in place, I can see the impact this has been having. You only make money by flying your aircraft. When they are not flying you are still paying for them through lease rates or financing charges, so the cost burden combined with no revenue to offset unsurprisingly can only be sustained for so long.

Pratt & Whitney allegedly have supply chain issues much further down the line with core components that is impacting their ability to keep to schedule on the servicing of their engines. Aircraft engines are complex pieces of kit unsurprisingly and the P&W engines in question are an extra level of complexity due to certain innovations which cause them to have a much quieter run, and thrust / efficiency ratio. But to achieve this requires innovative designs of some of the inner mechanics which ultimately cause higher internal temperatures in certain components. This requires extra ventilation ‘holes’ (for want of a non-technical term) to enable such higher temperatures. In certain environments, such as India with more dust and pollution, these holes are more prone to blockage. And when this happens, then the only option is an engine service. It is this propensity for such that is causing these particular engines to have more service requirements (on top of the already rigorous service standards obviously in place). So now you know!

The pandemic is also a factor as the long tail supply chain is still impacted as a result of suspended activity, and slower productivity during that time, all of which is yet to fully catch up. Hence put all that together and you get delays on maintenance work and an inability to keep up with the demand. Go First are paying the price it seems sadly.

This industry has emerged from the pandemic with a real pace – more so than pretty much all the forecasts of a couple years back – and as people want to travel again, supply chains and deliveries are all struggling to cope. Airlines are bounding back and ordering new aircraft to meet such demand, and this all continues to put pressure on the system. And with the growth potential of India mentioned earlier….

It all means that this sure is the global epicentre of aviation development right now, and it is great to be a part of it. The above talks of the domestic Indian based airlines in the main, although there is also huge demand for growth into India from overseas airlines and in recent months we have seen good success with new airline route launches from such, and some key ‘wins’ with airlines we have been targeting for a while.

Personally, my remit is largely to guide the team strategically in engaging with these airlines, with a heavy bias towards the international ones. This is simply down to the fact the local teams are more conversant and familiar with the domestic airlines, so I do not really need to drive that area hands on. It is more sensible to let each play to their strengths and just nudge direction if needed. Although there are some key strategic projects underway all aimed at further growing and developing the Indian aviation ecosystem and these feature in my day-to-day work life too.

I have been working solely from my Delhi office for 3 weeks now and have not travelled anywhere, so it has been a time to refresh some back end activities, and status check some of the progress with our development strategies for the year. Airline engagement though requires exactly that – engagement. So being out and about is key to being successful at what I do, and this time next week I will be 4,000 miles away from where I am now commencing the next trip. That will likely be followed by a fairly travel intensive few weeks until the end of July. I come home for a couple of weeks leave later in August (home sweet home!). And then it will be September, and talk will start of Christmas being on the horizon. This year is flying by. Literally at times.

Having a peaceful life for the last few weeks has been nice though and enabled me to focus on getting some things sorted locally too. The apartment terrace had got quite unkempt in recent months with some heavy storms causing damage to certain parts. Plus, the outside plants had all died…

So I had the guys come and tidy it all up, and while it is more bare without the original plant life anymore, it is much tidier.

The temperature actually reduced a little for a few days last week aligned to some major storm activity so I managed to get a couple of real life outdoor runs in. Not far or fast, but nice to amuse the locals and the street dogs by trotting around the local loop that I have found.

Vikas my day guard is not back yet from his wedding, but I think he should be any day now. His temporary replacement has managed to master a couple of English phrases, and whenever he says them, he seems particularly proud of himself smiling away at having managed to utter something he likely does not really understand but has taught himself is the right thing to say (“good morning”, “yes sir”, and “office?” is pretty much the extent of it though). He also continues to speak Hindi to me thinking that maybe I will understand what he is saying. It is quite comical really, but he seems pleasant enough and is obviously trying his best. Seeing him sprint to the gate to reach it before me so he can open it for me is something to behold.

Pushpender, the night guard, also cleared off for a few days to his village this week and when he returned couple days back he sent me a rather distressing picture of his mother looking the worse for wear lying on a makeshift bed in what I assume is the hospital. Apparently she had been in an accident, but ‘will be ok’. I am not sure if he was sharing it with me in a subtle request for financial help, or just because he wanted to let me know.

My animal menagerie remains intact with Penny 2 still keeping her eggs safe, and I nearly managed to get a picture of her on the nest but instead got a mid-flight flee moment instead.

Plus, Gertie the Gecko and I watched the Monaco Grand Prix together last weekend, although to be fair it was mainly me doing the watching as she kept wondering off and pottering around, so I don’t think she was that interested. Maybe she will join me tomorrow for the Spanish F1 race and show some more enthusiasm this time!

This morning I managed to catch a view of the local vegetable cart doing the rounds pulled along by a horse, the vendor calling out his little chant advertising his presence for the locals to emerge and make their purchases.

Whenever I venture out onto my terrace, I can watch the aircraft on approach (usually the flow is in a Westwards direction) so aircraft arriving onto Runway 27 pass just to the North of my apartment. It is a constant reminder of my life in aviation – the reason I am here ultimately.  And working in aviation in India really is the centre of the action right now. 

Onwards and upwards India! Incredible.